Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FORTH prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-01-12 3.792024 4.160084 4.592096 5.150131 5.874772 6.822832 8.239305
2025-01-19 3.270467 3.703777 4.252185 5.034329 6.201251 8.069561 11.990758
2025-01-26 3.054963 3.545666 4.205482 5.232115 6.991796 10.602046 25.187780
2025-02-02 2.940549 3.486105 4.260574 5.571959 8.194190 15.926723 NaN
2025-02-09 2.783427 3.340080 4.155847 5.612216 8.858634 22.532944 NaN
2025-02-16 2.664519 3.231087 4.084994 5.685837 9.673018 39.063179 NaN
2025-02-23 2.504381 3.045633 3.867746 5.430632 9.457207 47.870223 NaN
2025-03-02 2.417790 2.961081 3.802277 5.458812 10.130748 242.136414 NaN
2025-03-09 2.334728 2.874540 3.722648 5.439580 10.667190 NaN NaN
2025-03-16 2.239931 2.763531 3.590903 5.284464 10.609674 NaN NaN
2025-03-23 2.203162 2.738637 3.602742 5.446341 12.049414 NaN NaN
2025-03-30 2.114294 2.627497 3.455062 5.218143 11.502361 NaN NaN
2025-04-06 2.023437 2.512375 3.298864 4.966140 10.812390 NaN NaN
2025-04-13 1.958320 2.435088 3.205171 4.851241 10.783842 NaN NaN
2025-04-20 1.939086 2.428422 3.234972 5.032174 12.555751 NaN NaN
2025-04-27 1.935454 2.445842 3.309269 5.343783 16.194678 NaN NaN
2025-05-04 1.899720 2.409244 3.280211 5.380541 18.006119 NaN NaN
2025-05-11 1.869690 2.380324 3.263146 5.447806 20.745714 NaN NaN
2025-05-18 1.810941 2.301831 3.146512 5.214213 18.755775 NaN NaN
2025-05-25 1.781980 2.271439 3.120720 5.240058 20.917402 NaN NaN
2025-06-01 1.750529 2.235607 3.082056 5.222421 22.600612 NaN NaN
2025-06-08 1.708820 2.181324 3.004695 5.079956 21.535063 NaN NaN
2025-06-15 1.697095 2.176389 3.023176 5.228621 28.142607 NaN NaN